A pivotal AFC matchup will close out NFL Week 15 on Monday Night Football as the Miami Dolphins travel to Pittsburgh to face the Steelers, with both teams firmly in the playoff hunt and little margin for error left in the season.
Miami enters the game at 6–7, riding a six-game winning streak that has reignited its postseason hopes. The Dolphins dominated the Jets 34–10 last week and now find themselves back in the thick of the AFC playoff picture. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, is 7–6 and coming off a hard-fought 27–22 win over Baltimore, a victory that pushed the Steelers half a game ahead of the Ravens atop the AFC North.
Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET at Acrisure Stadium. According to the latest odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, Pittsburgh is a 3-point home favorite after opening at -3.5. The over/under for total points sits at 42.5.
The SportsLine projection model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, has locked in its outlook for Dolphins vs. Steelers. The model has been highly profitable over time, generating more than $7,000 in gains for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its launch. Entering Week 15, it’s riding a 50–35 run on top-rated selections dating back to 2024.
Injury Report and Game Context
Pittsburgh will be shorthanded defensively. Edge rusher T.J. Watt (lung), guard Andrus Peat (concussion), and cornerback James Pierre (calf) have all been ruled out. Running back Jaylen Warren (illness) and defensive tackle Derrick Harmon (knee) are listed as questionable, adding further uncertainty on both sides of the ball.
Miami comes in healthier and confident, with its defense and rushing attack carrying much of the recent momentum.
Why Miami Can Cover the Spread
The Dolphins have been one of the hotter teams in the league, covering the spread in three of their last four games and going 7–4 against the spread over their past 11 outings. Their defense has been especially sharp during the winning streak, holding each of the last four opponents to 17 points or fewer while forcing 10 turnovers in that span.
Offensively, head coach Mike McDaniel continues to lean on a productive ground game. Miami ranks fifth in yards per carry and eighth in rushing yards per game. De’Von Achane is on pace for nearly 2,000 scrimmage yards this season, and rookie Jaylen Wright added 107 yards and a touchdown last week.
That balance could be a problem for a Pittsburgh defense that has struggled statistically, ranking 27th or worse in total yards allowed, passing defense, and third-down defense.
Why Pittsburgh Can Cover at Home
The setting may favor the Steelers. Monday night football in Pittsburgh comes with a forecasted game-time temperature of around 25 degrees, and that matters against a Miami team with a long history of struggles in cold weather. The Dolphins have lost 13 straight games played in temperatures under 40 degrees, and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is 0–8 in his career in those conditions.
Turnovers could also swing the game. Tagovailoa leads the NFL with 14 interceptions this season and now faces a Pittsburgh defense that ranks second in the league with 23 takeaways.
On offense, Aaron Rodgers is coming off one of his better performances of the season, throwing for 284 yards and scoring on the ground for the first time since 2022 in last week’s win over Baltimore. Rodgers also has a recent history of success against Miami, throwing five touchdown passes and averaging over 300 yards per game in two meetings last season.
Model Prediction and Best Bet Angle
For Monday night’s showdown, the SportsLine model is projecting a higher-scoring game than the betting market suggests, leaning toward the Over, with a projected total of 46 points. The model also identifies one side of the spread as offering stronger value, based on its simulations.
With playoff stakes, cold weather, and contrasting strengths colliding, Dolphins vs. Steelers shapes up as one of the most compelling games of Week 15 — and one that could significantly reshape the AFC playoff race.