London, 16 December 2025 – Reform UK has extended its lead in the latest YouGov Westminster voting intention poll, opening a 10-point gap over Labour and cementing its position as the single most popular party in Britain.
The survey, published this afternoon, puts Reform on 28%, Labour on 18%, Conservatives on 17%, Liberal Democrats on 14% and Greens on 9%. When people are asked who they would most like to see as prime minister, Nigel Farage scores 24% – comfortably ahead of Sir Keir Starmer (17%) and Kemi Badenoch (13%).
The 10-point lead is Reform’s biggest advantage since the general election and comes only 24 hours after the party claimed its membership had passed 268,000 – more than Labour’s official figure of under 250,000.
Party chairman Zia Yusuf told reporters outside Parliament this morning: “The British people have woken up. They know the old parties have failed them on immigration, on the economy and on public services. This poll is not a protest vote – it is a demand for real change.”
The surge follows a string of local council by-election gains for Reform in the past month, including taking seats from both Labour and Conservatives in areas previously considered safe. Senior party sources say they are now actively preparing for the next set of mayoral elections, expected in May 2026.
Labour sources privately admit the government is “rattled”. One cabinet minister told journalists off the record: “We thought we could squeeze Reform back down once people saw we were in charge. It’s not happening.”
Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp said the figures were “a direct consequence of Keir Starmer’s open-border policies and his war on small businesses.” He added that Reform’s rise showed “the Conservative Party must now decide whether it wants to survive or simply hand the right to Nigel Farage.”
YouGov also asked about potential future leaders. 41% of voters said they would be more likely to vote Reform if Farage remained leader, while only 12% said they would be put off. Among 18–24-year-olds, Reform now leads Labour by 14 points – a dramatic reversal from July.
On social media the poll triggered an immediate reaction. Within minutes #ReformRising was trending number one on X, with posts from supporters sharing memes of a sinking red bus and captions reading “Labour’s Christmas present to Britain: 28% Reform”.
A senior Reform strategist, speaking anonymously, said the party was already drawing up plans to cut up to 68,000 civil service jobs and to freeze non-essential immigration “until housing and NHS waiting lists are under control”.
Sir Keir Starmer, speaking at Prime Minister’s Questions earlier today, dismissed the poll as “noise” and insisted his government was “getting on with the job”. However, Labour MPs privately admit that internal focus groups are now showing Reform ahead in more than 150 seats the party currently holds.
Political analysts say the poll marks a turning point: for the first time since the 2019 election, neither Labour nor the Conservatives is in first or second place in a national voting intention survey.
With local elections due in May and mayoral contests in major cities next year, Westminster is bracing for a winter of intense campaigning – and growing fear among the traditional parties that Reform UK is no longer a fringe protest movement, but the new main opposition.