More than 300,000 people have been newly displaced in Mozambique since July as an Islamic State–linked insurgency intensifies, raising fears that the government lacks a viable strategy to bring the conflict to an end.
The long-running war in northern Mozambique has received limited international attention as conflicts in Ukraine, Gaza and Sudan dominate global focus and foreign aid declines. Overall, more than one million people have been displaced by the fighting, many of them repeatedly, with some forced to flee their homes two, three or even four times.
The insurgency, led by Islamic State–Mozambique, an affiliate of the main Islamic State group in the Middle East, began in October 2017 with attacks in the town of Mocímboa da Praia in Cabo Delgado province in the country’s north-east. Since then, neither the Mozambican army nor foreign military support has succeeded in fully suppressing the violence.
The conflict drew international attention in March 2021 when militants attacked the town of Palma, killing more than 600 people during the assault and the military’s subsequent recapture of the area, according to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (Acled) project. Among the dead were foreign workers linked to a multibillion-dollar liquefied natural gas (LNG) project operated by Total.
In response to the escalating violence, Rwanda deployed 1,000 troops to Cabo Delgado in July 2021. Rwanda’s forces, considered better trained and equipped than Mozambique’s military, initially pushed the insurgents back. Rwanda now has an estimated 4,000 to 5,000 personnel stationed in the country.
Despite this intervention, violence against civilians has never fully subsided and has increased this year, according to Acled. In November alone, more than 100,000 people were displaced, according to the International Organization for Migration. This followed joint Mozambican and Rwandan military operations that pushed Islamic State fighters southwards, leading to the group’s deepest incursion yet into neighbouring Nampula province.
By the end of November, more than 350,000 people were displaced, up from around 240,000 a year earlier.
Tomás Queface, a researcher with Acled, said the insurgents had become increasingly bold. He added that Rwandan and Mozambican forces were no longer as effective as before.
“The Rwandans are not doing patrols like they used to do,” Queface said. “And more importantly, the government wants the Mozambican forces to take the lead in the conflict and then Rwanda stays in the back.”
So far this year, Acled has recorded 549 deaths across 302 attacks, with more than half of those killed being civilians. The civilian death toll has reached 290, already 56% higher than last year. Since 2017, nearly 2,800 civilians have been killed, with about 80% of the deaths attributed to Islamic State–linked fighters and more than 9% to Mozambican security forces.
Mozambique’s president, Daniel Chapo, who took office in January following disputed elections and a subsequent security crackdown that killed hundreds of people, said in a September interview with Al Jazeera that he wanted to pursue dialogue with the insurgents.
Borges Nhamirre, a researcher at the Institute for Security Studies, a South African thinktank, said dialogue — particularly with local communities in the underdeveloped region — was essential to resolving the conflict. However, he expressed doubt about the government’s commitment.
“Most important is not what politicians say but what politicians do,” Nhamirre said. “After eight years, there are no effective initiatives of dialogue.”
He added that much of the military effort appeared focused on protecting the estimated $20bn LNG project in Cabo Delgado, which Total said in October it would resume once it received approval from the Mozambican government.
“First you need to ask what objective the Rwandan and Mozambican forces had,” Nhamirre said. “If it is to guarantee human security, then we can say that they have failed. But if the objective is to secure the LNG project, then they have achieved some success. The LNG project is definitely more secure than in 2021.”
Meanwhile, Islamic State fighters have increasingly abducted children for forced labour, marriage or recruitment into combat roles. In June, Human Rights Watch reported a sharp rise in such kidnappings.
Sheila Nhancale, a researcher at Human Rights Watch, said the current wave of displacement had heightened the risk of sexual violence, exploitation and abuse, particularly for women and children.
“Of the 100,000 displaced in November, 70,000 are children,” she said.
Humanitarian support for displaced people is also declining. Donors have provided $195m to Mozambique’s humanitarian response this year, covering only 55% of the estimated need, according to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. This compares with $246m provided last year.
Sebastián Traficante, head of operations for Médecins Sans Frontières in Mozambique, said displaced families are living in extremely poor conditions, with limited access to basic services, in areas already devastated by eight years of conflict.
“They just want this to end,” Traficante said. “They just want to be able to go back to their homes, to do their farming. They want to have a normal life.”